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第二輪感染高峰即將到來?兩類人群或受影響大

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admin Lv.9

2023-2-5 07:59:10 | 顯示全部 |大圖
剛剛過去的春節,疫情并未有明顯反彈。隨著奧密克戎變異株CH.1.1、XBB.1.5、BQ.1.1、BQ.1和XBB的出現,大家對可能出現的第二波感染高峰十分關注。最近“第2輪感染高峰或在3到5月”話題也登上熱搜。


第2輪感染高峰為何預測在3到5月?

華中科技大學同濟醫學院附屬同濟醫院感染科主任醫師邢銘友1月31日在接受長江日報采訪時分析,從病毒學的角度和流行病學的角度來看,“陽康”后體內抗體水平會維持3到6個月比較高的峰值,短時間內再感染的人只有2%的概率。但是我們國人口基數非常大,從去年12月開始,再過3到6個月,我們的抗體水平慢慢下降以后,這時候如果有新的病毒變異株,我們再次感染后出現臨床癥狀的可能性非常大,仍有可能出現高峰。

邢銘友教授預測,第二輪感染高峰可能會在3-5月到來,但這次高峰民眾可能感覺不那么明顯。由于大家感染的時間先后有差異,再加上我們第二次感染以后,由于有一個基礎抗體水平的存在,第二輪感染的人數、感染癥狀的輕重,以及時間集中的幅度都會比第一次要弱得多。

德國華裔病毒學家、埃森大學醫學院病毒研究所教授陸蒙吉也在2月1日在接受《中國新聞周刊》采訪時表示,預計從今年3月下旬開始,隨著人群免疫力的下降,人群感染風險會增加,五六月份時,疫情變化會非常明顯,到時候可能會面臨第二波的沖擊。但第二波疫情會出現在三月份還是五六月份,取決于是否會出現一種沖擊力非常大的新毒株。


兩類人群未來或受影響大

1. 還在恢復身體的老人

病毒學家、德國埃森大學醫學院病毒研究所教授陸蒙吉教授在接受《中國新聞周刊》采訪時談到,現在很多感染過的老人正處于身體恢復期,很多體質差的人再感染一次,后果可能非常嚴重。這個階段,沒發生感染的部分有免疫缺陷的高危人群,也可能面臨下一波疫情的沖擊。

2. 尚未感染的人群

目前受疫情影響最大的是尚未感染人群,估計在15%到20%。這和此前整體人群都易感的情況相比,影響程度已有所減少,但鑒于我國人口基數,涉及的人群規模還是很大的。

我們能做什么?做好2點

每個人做好自己健康的第一責任人,保持社交距離,養成良好的衛生習慣,很大程度上還是可以預防感染和二次感染。

1. 保持戴口罩的習慣

華中科技大學同濟醫學院附屬同濟醫院感染科主任醫師邢銘友教授在接受長江日報采訪時提醒,特別是在人群較密集的公共場合,必須規范佩戴口罩。普通民眾常規出行規范佩戴醫用外科口罩就足夠。從事一些高風險崗位和環境下,感染概率增加需要佩戴N95口罩。

2. 三類人群優先接種疫苗

邢銘友在教授在接受長江健康融媒采訪時表示,由于“陽康”后6個月,我們第一次感染以后產生的抗體已經消失殆盡,這時候補種加強疫苗非常有必要。接種后可以推遲感染的時間,或者說減少感染的概率。

三類人群建議優先接種

一、從事高風險崗位工作如醫生、快遞員等;

二、有基礎疾病的老年患者如糖尿病、高血壓、有腫瘤或者是透析做過移植的這些患者;

三、在第一次感染中出現了肺炎的表現,癥狀較重住院治療過的人群,在第一次“陽康”以后6個月一定要接種加強疫苗。



來源|@人民網科普綜合健康時報  鎮雄融媒
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